Global Value Strategist

US Fed needs to accept necessity of negative rates

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has told everyone from Princeton professor and former Fed vice chair Alan Blinder to Congressional committees to the public at large via press conferences that negative interest rates are not an “appropriate tool” for the United States. In a recent…

Dollar doomed as China shifts to consumption

Morgan Stanley’s former Asia Chairman Stephen Roach and Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio, among others, have recently warned that the US dollar may lose a third of its value. A chronically low savings rate, a large current account deficit and a huge federal financing requirement, Roach…

Chinese debt a safe and sound market bet

Foreign holdings of Chinese debt grew at the fastest rate on record during July and August as the yuan rose against the dollar and the Chinese economy evinced clear signs of economic recovery. Foreign holdings of onshore bonds rose to 2.86% of the total market…

All signs point to a fast-rising yuan

China’s yuan breached 6.83 to the US dollar this week for the first time since May 2019 and will continue to appreciate as China maintains a neutral monetary policy while other major economies loosen aggressively.   China’s shift to expanding domestic demand, promoted by President Xi…

Time to buy China’s smoking hot equities

Chinese stocks don’t look as cheap on a valuation basis as they did in January 2019 before a 60 percentage point gain in the CSI 300 Index. As we explain below, China’s equity market valuation rose as currency risk shrank. We are a long way…

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