Latest stories

  • Why Isn’t Trump Trying to Win?

    The fate of an incumbent president is exquisitely sensitive to economic conditions. Incumbents tend to lose elections when the economy is weak (e.g., George H. W. Bush’s defeat in 1992) and win when it’s strong (e.g., Bill Clinton’s romp four years later). The 2020 economy…
  • IPOs—Pandemic Proof?

    Commentary Initial public offerings (IPOs) are going great guns this fall, smashing records as investors see incredible gains and anticipate more to come. Why is this happening now, in this most unusual and economically challenging year? There are several reasons. The Federal Reserve’s immense capital…
  • The US Stock Market Matters to All Californians

    Commentary California receives about half of its personal income tax revenue from people who sell assets and pay the state income tax on that gain. Happily, the stock market is doing so well that at least this portion of California’s expected state revenues seems relatively…